|HOME||MEDIAVILLAGE.com||WOMEN ADVANCING||HOOKED UP||MEMBERSHIP INFO||MEMBER COMPANIES||MEDIA BUSINESS REPORT||ECONOMIC FORECASTS||RESEARCH|
Published: March 18, 2008 at 12:26 AM GMT
Last Updated: April 7, 2008 at 12:26 AM GMT
What a week last week was -- and what a week this is already shaping up to be! The Eliot Spitzer affair was beyond comprehension. The John Malone/Barry Diller soap opera played out in a Delaware courtroom. But for long-term impact, the Bear Stearns debacle was the major story, with the economy taking a turn that could have significant impact on this year's advertising marketplace. Plus NBC and News Corp. launched video website Hulu last week. Debbie Richman left OMD to join Lifetime. Curt Viebranz was unceremoniously dumped by AOL and replaced by insider Lydia Clarizio. Joanne Bradford departed MSN, where she was GM, to join Spot Runner, a company that is gaining increased recognition and that former MTV and IPG executive Mark Rosenthal recently joined as Vice Chairman. There were multiple acquisitions and far more major personnel announcements than in an average week. The rate of industry change is accelerating.
While I am not yet prepared to revise my relatively bullish ad spending forecast and I continue to believe most media other than newspapers will experience revenue increases in 2008, the economy is clearly heading into a recession. And while our analysis of the historic impact of a recession on ad spending supports our bullish forecasts, the combination of a severe economic downturn with the dramatic erosion of broadcast network audiences resulting from the recent writers' strike could cause advertisers to finally resist the cost-per-thousand (CPM) increases the networks will undoubtedly be seeking. Although, for reasons I point out below, I expect the Upfront market will once again be a good one for the networks.
Broadcast networks, buoyed by their success in generating higher than expected CPM increases last year, expect buyers to once again pay mid-to-high single digit CPM gains in this year's Upfront marketplace. These increases are anticipated although strike-related ratings declines were dramatic and the ratings recovery has been slow. Leading cable networks are projecting double digit CPM increases. But agency executives are quietly expressing concern that the network run of year-after-year CPM increases may be at an end due to marketers' economic concerns.
Compounding marketers’ concerns, the writers' strike has caused unprecedented disarray at the networks and studios. With the launch of Hulu, with investors financing alternative programming studios like Next New Networks ($15 million more invested last week), with accelerating audience fragmentation, and with networks struggling to bring viewers back into the fold, agency media departments and media sales executives are facing unprecedented demands.
Yahoo!, AOL, Google and MSN should be well positioned to benefit. But, except for Google, these companies are also in a state of unprecedented disarray. Microsoft’s focus is on its battle to acquire Yahoo!, and Yahoo!'s focus is obviously on its response. Both should be concentrating on maximizing brand advertising revenues. But who at either company is leading the charge? While they both have competent executives, the lead dogs at both companies have virtually no experience in the traditional media marketplace.
In recent months Yahoo! lost Greg Coleman, Wenda Millard, Jackie Kelley and others who had Madison Avenue experience. At Microsoft, while the aQuantive acquisition brought several executives experienced in the digital ad market, only Bradford was well known in traditional ad circles. AOL should capitalize on the brain drain at Microsoft and Yahoo! but it has suffered its own executive departures. Neither Viebranz nor Clarizio have traditional ad industry sales and marketing credentials.
Google's acquisition of DoubleClick finally gained EU approval last week, but Google’s most active executives in the ad community also lack experience in the traditional media marketplace. While Microsoft, AOL and Google have been actively acquiring companies and recruiting talent to bolster their bona fides in the digital ad marketplace, none can field a team with experience and credibility in the network TV departments of traditional media agencies and among the senior brand and advertising executives at top 200 marketers.
Attention is being paid to vertical ad sales networks, behavioral targeting, administrative backbone companies like Rapt (acquired last week by Microsoft), and social networking, but very little attention is being paid to brand advertisers' needs and opportunities. Nor is attention being paid to developing quality content to offer a trusted environment for brand advertising. The focus instead, it seems, is on advertising as a commodity rather than advertising as a tool for building brand awareness and sales.
This is an industry in disarray. In chaos. In a chaotic marketplace, advertisers and agency buyers will, like consumers, turn to those brands they know best. And that means that for one more year at least, the TV network Upfront marketplace should be a strong one.
Only at JackMyers.com: TV Maven:
"The Bachelor": British Banker Rejects a First-Round Love Thong
This Year's Upfront Events -When Are They?
Find Out at JackMyers.com
The Growing eSports Marketplace for Brands
This week on Mindshare’s Culture Vulture Live, Alexis Fragile explores the rise of eSports in North America.
Q&A: Dentsu Aegis SE Asia on Automation, Programmatic and TV
The Summer of Sears continues! Jay Sears, Senior Vice President Marketplace Development of Rubicon Project discusses "Automation, Programmatic and TV" with Anna Chan of Dentsu Aegis' Amnet Asia. The two executives appeared at Rubicon Project's 2nd Annual Real Time Trading Update from SE Asia's Buy Side in Bintan, Indonesia in July 2015.
“AGT” Presents One of the Most Amazing Things You Will Ever See on Any Screen
NBC’s summer hit “America’s Got Talent” has offered up countless impressive acts during its decade-long run … but there was one on the show Tuesday night that in my opinion topped them all. In fact, it was so amazing that it doesn’t seem adequate to qualify it against other “AGT” acts only, so let me say this: It was one of the most incredible things I have ever seen on television – and, in part, on Instagram – period. My neighbors and I were as slack-jawed as judges Howard Stern, Heidi Klum, Mel B and Howie Mandel, and host Nick Cannon, at the end of the segment.
SMI: Vibrant July Gets Ad Spend Market Back on Track
Following a challenging start to the year for most media owners, July delivered the biggest growth numbers of 2015 so far, fueled by digital and a resurgent out-of-home market.
“Fear the Walking Dead,” “I Am Cait,” “Mr. Robot”
Shortly after the publication of my column last Friday, which was filled with hindsight reflections on the recently concluded Summer 2015 Television Critics Association tour, I heard from a former TCA member with an interesting observation of his own.
Will There Be a New Media Distribution Consensus?
It’s been awhile since DISH CEO Charles Ergen began accumulating spectrum to augment his ability to provide robust programming to subscribers via mobile broadband. Last week, I noted that AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson was, more or less kind of, leapfrogging Charlie and putting the strategic idea together by absorbing DirecTV. And, on the cheaper side of the immediate future, major cable MSO/ISPs Comcast, Charter (presumably with the Time Warner Cable and Bright House acquisitions), Cablevision, Cox and others already provide Internet access via Wi-Fi hotspots everywhere (and all together) and are moving to use almost any set-top box (or dongle or device) via the cloud. (Charter’s Thomas Rutledge was a mover behind the remote DVR at Cablevision.) Also at the end of last week, Investor’s Business Daily reported that Oppenheimer analyst Tim Horan was predicting that Verizon, Sprint and T-Mobile would, one way or another, find a way to partner a la AT&T/DirecTV, too.
“TREotM”: The 2nd Decade of the 21st Century
Chapter 12, Part 1
What We Know About Frequency in TV and Digital Advertising: Pt. 2
By Gian Fulgoni, Bill Harvey and Andrew Lipsman
Ashley Madison and the Future of Men
The recent Ashley Madison hack revealed that 86% of the site's users were men, casting men and the online dating culture into the spotlight--and not in a good way.
"Fear the Walking Dead" is Here at Last!
Without a doubt the most feverishly anticipated new series of 2015 is "Fear the Walking Dead," AMC's fearsome prequel to "The Walking Dead." And tonight, at long last, it's showtime!
Is The Agency Model Broken?
Bill Koenigsberg, CEO of Horizon Media, was probably right when he recently pointed out that the old agency model is broken. But it has happened for many reasons that are not only associated with approximately $30 billion in client billings now in review.
The Millennial Dilemma
We’ve been called lazy, arrogant, narcissistic -- and most definitely tech-absorbed. When older generations hear the word “Millennials,” they often groan or shake their heads. We are the spoiled generation, connected constantly to our phones and missing out on real relationships, real connections. Or so they say.
At TCA Tours, Broadcast is Still the Game to Beat
It’s been a week since the 2015 Summer Television Critics Association tour came to an end – with a full day of panels by NBC, an experience that left many of the critics and reporters there believing that a broadcast network should never occupy the last day of any tour, especially in the summer. That’s because broadcast network days are still regarded by many of their editors and publishers, if not by the journalists and bloggers themselves, as the most important, simply because they tend to be jammed with panels for new fall or midseason series.
Mr. Mom. A Nice Theory. Ask the Kids About It.
Meet Samantha Gloria Sabo (pictured above). She is three and a half years old. Here are her priorities:
What Marketers Should Know About Back-to-School Season
This week, on Mindshare’s Culture Vulture Live, Kristine Munsen discusses back-to-school season and omnichannel retail.