|HOME||MEDIAVILLAGE.com||WOMEN ADVANCING||HOOKED UP||MEMBERSHIP INFO||MEMBER COMPANIES||MEDIA BUSINESS REPORT||ECONOMIC FORECASTS||RESEARCH|
Published: March 18, 2008 at 12:16 PM GMT
Last Updated: April 7, 2008 at 12:16 PM GMT
What a week last week was -- and what a week this is already shaping up to be! The Eliot Spitzer affair was beyond comprehension. The John Malone/Barry Diller soap opera played out in a Delaware courtroom. But for long-term impact, the Bear Stearns debacle was the major story, with the economy taking a turn that could have significant impact on this year's advertising marketplace. Plus NBC and News Corp. launched video website Hulu last week. Debbie Richman left OMD to join Lifetime. Curt Viebranz was unceremoniously dumped by AOL and replaced by insider Lydia Clarizio. Joanne Bradford departed MSN, where she was GM, to join Spot Runner, a company that is gaining increased recognition and that former MTV and IPG executive Mark Rosenthal recently joined as Vice Chairman. There were multiple acquisitions and far more major personnel announcements than in an average week. The rate of industry change is accelerating.
While I am not yet prepared to revise my relatively bullish ad spending forecast and I continue to believe most media other than newspapers will experience revenue increases in 2008, the economy is clearly heading into a recession. And while our analysis of the historic impact of a recession on ad spending supports our bullish forecasts, the combination of a severe economic downturn with the dramatic erosion of broadcast network audiences resulting from the recent writers' strike could cause advertisers to finally resist the cost-per-thousand (CPM) increases the networks will undoubtedly be seeking. Although, for reasons I point out below, I expect the Upfront market will once again be a good one for the networks.
Broadcast networks, buoyed by their success in generating higher than expected CPM increases last year, expect buyers to once again pay mid-to-high single digit CPM gains in this year's Upfront marketplace. These increases are anticipated although strike-related ratings declines were dramatic and the ratings recovery has been slow. Leading cable networks are projecting double digit CPM increases. But agency executives are quietly expressing concern that the network run of year-after-year CPM increases may be at an end due to marketers' economic concerns.
Compounding marketers’ concerns, the writers' strike has caused unprecedented disarray at the networks and studios. With the launch of Hulu, with investors financing alternative programming studios like Next New Networks ($15 million more invested last week), with accelerating audience fragmentation, and with networks struggling to bring viewers back into the fold, agency media departments and media sales executives are facing unprecedented demands.
Yahoo!, AOL, Google and MSN should be well positioned to benefit. But, except for Google, these companies are also in a state of unprecedented disarray. Microsoft’s focus is on its battle to acquire Yahoo!, and Yahoo!'s focus is obviously on its response. Both should be concentrating on maximizing brand advertising revenues. But who at either company is leading the charge? While they both have competent executives, the lead dogs at both companies have virtually no experience in the traditional media marketplace.
In recent months Yahoo! lost Greg Coleman, Wenda Millard, Jackie Kelley and others who had Madison Avenue experience. At Microsoft, while the aQuantive acquisition brought several executives experienced in the digital ad market, only Bradford was well known in traditional ad circles. AOL should capitalize on the brain drain at Microsoft and Yahoo! but it has suffered its own executive departures. Neither Viebranz nor Clarizio have traditional ad industry sales and marketing credentials.
Google's acquisition of DoubleClick finally gained EU approval last week, but Google’s most active executives in the ad community also lack experience in the traditional media marketplace. While Microsoft, AOL and Google have been actively acquiring companies and recruiting talent to bolster their bona fides in the digital ad marketplace, none can field a team with experience and credibility in the network TV departments of traditional media agencies and among the senior brand and advertising executives at top 200 marketers.
Attention is being paid to vertical ad sales networks, behavioral targeting, administrative backbone companies like Rapt (acquired last week by Microsoft), and social networking, but very little attention is being paid to brand advertisers' needs and opportunities. Nor is attention being paid to developing quality content to offer a trusted environment for brand advertising. The focus instead, it seems, is on advertising as a commodity rather than advertising as a tool for building brand awareness and sales.
This is an industry in disarray. In chaos. In a chaotic marketplace, advertisers and agency buyers will, like consumers, turn to those brands they know best. And that means that for one more year at least, the TV network Upfront marketplace should be a strong one.
Only at JackMyers.com: TV Maven:
"The Bachelor": British Banker Rejects a First-Round Love Thong
This Year's Upfront Events -When Are They?
Find Out at JackMyers.com
Outbrain Recommends Newspaper
One of the things that Bill Maher has said he values most from newspapers is the content he didn’t know he would find when he moved through their pages.
Amid All the Digital Hype, Don’t Forget: TV Wins Elections!
Political campaigns are about winning. As we head into the 2016 election cycle, campaign managers and their media strategists would be well served by keeping in perspective the myriad new digital advertising platforms available to them and their utility in helping them win, because while digital tools are a great supplement to the tried and true method of reaching voters through local broadcast television, a political campaign focused primarily on digital tools risks losing if decision-makers don’t keep the facts in mind.
Here's how America's Most Popular Apps will Reshape Media
Look out! America's most popular apps will reshape media!
The Rising Quality Standard for Online Video
Traditional video content creators, you’ve got a problem.
Agency Reviews Decided at a Cost of Millions
Slowly but surely the pitch cycle turns, as a few more mega clients involved in pitch-bonanza-time declare their results and decide on a home for their media budgets. There’s a certain and rather pleasing symmetry to the recent set of results. Three recent results, three different solutions.
"Netflix and Chill": Binge-Watching Reaches a Whole New Level
This week, on Mindshare’s Culture Vulture Live, Aimee Goldfarb talks about the evolution of Netflix in culture. TV addicts, this news is for you: Netflix is playing to the makers movement with the announcement of a connected button called “Netflix and Chill." While you can’t actually purchase the button, Netflix has published instructions for how to create this homegrown device.
Executive Perspectives: Jack Myers
Jack Myers is a Media Ecologist, and as such, he studies media agencies and how these agencies are choosing to spend their media money and on whom they are choosing to spend their money on. The emergence of digital video and the Internet of things (IoT) are massive industry game-changers, as marketing data can come from a multitude of sources. The data is all about the usage, the interpretation and the application of data and this is how media agencies need to position themselves in order to evolve within the industry. Myers has noticed the changes in the bigger media landscape as well. Many networks have moved from a more traditional, impression-based model to a performance-based model, therefore continuing to capitalize on all the emerging trends.
Screenvision Names John Partilla as Chief Executive Officer - Press Release of the Week
Media and Marketing Veteran's Proven Track Record of Innovation Well-Suited to Lead Screenvision into New Era of Growth
Industry Leaders React to comScore’s Acquisition of Rentrak
I have to admit that I was surprised by the news that comScore was acquiring Rentrak. While I expected more consolidation in the media measurement space, I didn't envision that it would be two big players joining forces but rather the continued ingestion of smaller companies by larger companies. This acquisition is not only a brilliant tactical move, it is also strategic: It might finally move analytics and insights in such a way that the industry shifts from the proxy metric of age and gender and into a more standardize-able cross platform measurement.
Newspaper Media Influences Key Constituents
As candidates for the 2016 presidential election declare their candidacy they are also honing in on target constituents, platforms, messaging and media choices. Even at this early stage, targeted reach and differentiation are paramount. What we can all agree on thus far is that the key voters who will “swing the election” are Millennials, Women, Independents, African Americans, Hispanics and Seniors – and, local newspaper media reaches them all in a trustworthy environment.
Give Peace a Chance
In case you missed it, Burger King placed an open letter in today’s New York Times and Chicago Tribune asking McDonald’s to come together on September 21 “Peace One Day” — cast their differences aside with an unprecedented proposition. They are asking to share resources – crew and ingredients in one single pop-up location (based in Atlanta which is neutral ground) to create, serve and sell the McWhopper with all proceeds benefiting Peace One Day” (a not-for-profit).
U.S. Media Planner Survey Takeaway: Disruption Reigns!
Every year our organization, the Digital Place Based Advertising Association, conducts a survey of media planners to take their pulse on the subject of video media and advertising. The 2015 results reinforce what we all sense, i.e., the ground is moving beneath our feet. Disruption reigns.
Not Your Father’s Tune-In -- Part 3
This continues our series probing into best practices in tune-in advertising, practices that have arisen rapidly since analysts began to study set-top box data to know what really works and what doesn’t.
How Muhammed Ali, Joe Frazier and Satellites Changed TV History
The year 1975 is notable for many reasons: The Vietnam War ended with the fall of Saigon; John Mitchell, the Attorney General of the United States, was found guilty of the Watergate cover-up; fugitive Patty Hearst was captured in San Francisco, and NBC aired the first episode of "Saturday Night Live." To many of us laboring in the shallow trenches of cable television, September 30th, 1975 was the night that changed the course of television history.
Exclusive! Meredith to Publish New Lifestyle Title, Beekman 1802 Almanac
Sometimes change happens fast. Sometimes it happens not at all. And sometimes change happens in stages, so that only when you look back do you notice how much ground has been covered. Madison Avenue -- and all of us -- will be reminded of that Oct. 6 when the media giant Meredith is to bring out a new publication, the Beekman 1802 Almanac. It's intended as a premium product, more akin to a book than a magazine, and as a contemporary version of those almanacs once relied upon by farmers. To underscore how contemporary the Beekman 1802 Almanac is meant to be, it's a partnership between Meredith and a same-sex married couple, Josh Kilmer-Purcell and Brent Ridge (pictured above).