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Wall St. Speaks Out on Nielsen, BrightRoll and Twitter
By: Brian Wieser   (11/21/2014)

Yesterday morning, at the same time as Viacom was arguing it would work (seemingly in parallel) towards "implementing an industry standard that appropriately reflects (Viacom's) valuable and rapidly growing multi-platform viewership," a Nielsen executive published an article arguing much the same thing. Viacom's CEO went on to say (seemingly in parallel) that it would also move aggressively toward non-Nielsen-dependent advertising monetization.

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Wall St. Speaks Out: Viacom: Focusing on Non-Nielsen Advertising
By: Dan Salmon   (11/14/2014)

Revenue of $3.99B was ahead of our $3.96B estimate and consensus of $3.89B. Adj. EPS of $1.71 was also ahead of our $1.70 and consensus of $1.68. Media Networks adjusted OI was $1.09B (vs. our $1.11B and consensus of $1.01B).

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Wall St Speaks Out on Yahoo Acquisition of BrightRoll
By: Dan Salmon   (11/12/2014)

After market close, Yahoo! announced that it would acquire video ad tech vendor BrightRoll for $640mm in cash. With net revenue of $100mm+, this implies a 6.4x multiple, and the deal will be accretive to EBITDA. BrightRoll's client base includes 87 of the AdAge top 100 U.S. national advertisers, all of the top 15 advertising agencies, and all of the 10 leading demand-side platforms. The transaction is expected to close in 1Q15, and Yahoo expects to begin scaling BrightRoll internationally after that.

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Wall St. Speaks Out: Can TV Nets Go OTT?
By: Tony Wible   (11/10/2014)

The drop in antiquated ratings, poor TV Everywhere development, threat from a long tail of online content, decline in MVPD homes, and rotation of ad spend to increasingly expensive mobile/online products, threaten the existence of less popular cable networks and pressure all owners to consider selling online bundles.

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Wall St. Speaks Out: In God We Trust (Everyone Else Bring Data)
By: Brian Wieser   (11/07/2014)

The issue of secular vs. cyclical shifts of spending in advertising remains as one of the most critical factors impacting media stocks and played out as an important issue this past week over the course of a flurry of earnings reports from owners of national TV properties. For example, price swings such as Discovery Communications' 10% fall-off following the release of its weak third quarter earnings were due at least in part to much softer domestic advertising results and less visibility on the fourth quarter than was expected. Commentary from Fox's Chase Carey regarding cyclical issues echoed points that we have been making in recent months about relative weakness in advertising this year vs. last. However, the notion that a secular shift in ad spending is accelerating still prevails among many, who will point to accelerating growth among digital media owners to support their arguments.

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Wall St. Speaks Out on Agencies' Digital Compensation
By: Brian Wieser   (11/04/2014)

The US advertising economy is weak at the present time. This may appear surprising to some given what appears to be a relatively healthy economy when compared with last year. The forecast we published in June for 2.5% underlying (excluding the impact of spending from political advertising and incremental Olympic activity) growth appears increasingly optimistic with deceleration from last year's 3.2% growth rate highly certain.

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Wall St. Speaks Out on Facebook and LinkedIn
By: Dan Salmon   (10/31/2014)

3Q14 non-GAAP EPS of $0.43 beat our $0.39 and the Street's $0.40 estimate. Revenue of $3.2B was in line with our estimate and slightly ahead of the Street's $3.12B. Mobile ad revenue of $1.95B was in-line with our estimate, while total ad revenue increased 64% yoy. Price per ad accelerated again, up 274% yoy, versus +123% in 2Q14; global impressions were down 56%. Management gave guidance for 4Q revenue growth of 40-47% (in line with our 45% estimate) and non-GAAP 2015 expense growth of 50-70%, which includes Oculus and WhatsApp and was much higher than our and Street expectations.

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Wall St. Speaks Out: A Revisionist's Recent History of TV and Internet Advertising - Brian Wieser, Pivotal Research Group
By: Brian Wieser   (10/28/2014)

Students of history understand that knowing where a society has come from goes a long way towards telling us where it is and where it is going. This is just as true when assessing the advertising economy. A better interpretation of historical "facts" is important in understanding where advertising is at the present time, and how spending will evolve in years ahead.

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Digital Appears to Finally Be Hurting National TV Advertising. Wall St. Speaks Out
By: Doug Creutz   (10/24/2014)

We believe that evidence is mounting that meaningful advertising dollars are now flowing out of national TV (broadcast/cable) and into digital (Internet/mobile). The Cowen Media team is reducing its 2014-15 broadcast and cable TV advertising industry estimates; the Cowen Internet team continues to expect robust digital advertising growth over the next five years.

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Wall St. Speaks Out: Leo Hindery on Content Unbundling, Comcast and More
By: John Tinker   (10/24/2014)

3Q14 Preview: We are forecasting revenue growth of 4.2% y/y to $16.85B, from $16.17B in 3Q13. We have lowered our 3Q14 revenue estimate from $17.15B primarily due to lower film revenues, which we have lowered by $370M to $1.13B due to a smaller film slate.

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As we all know, words are wind, but sometimes that wind can be very biting. “…We're still doing TV ratings on something more analogous to political polling," says Time Magazine columnist James Poniewozik in a recent Public Radio International interview. Hard truths cut both ways though as the media industry continues to support and rely upon a seemingly flawed system. Nielsen might possibly retort “you know nothing” to such a comment , but as the media and market research industries begin to embrace big data as never before, the entire television ecosystem hinges on approximately twenty-five thousand Nielsen People Meter households whose data generate the incumbent TV currency. The U.S. Census currently places the U.S. household population at over 115 million, which equates to one people meter for every 4,600 U.S. households. A set-top box (STB) sample of 1.5 million households equals a 1:77 STB to U.S. household ratio.

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National Geographic Channel, a network that in recent years has become known for its uncommonly creative publicity and promotion practices, faces just such challenges in the month ahead when it will debut “Eat: The Story of Food,” a three-night, six-hour documentary miniseries beginning Friday, November 21 that should leave sated anyone hungry for fresh information and fascinating historical footnotes about the title subject, and two new ongoing half-hour series, “Eric Greenspan is Hungry,” in which the celebrity chef travels around the country in search of the best meat, poultry and shellfish recipes, and “Chug,” a series in which comedian and TV host Zane Lamprey travels the world sampling the finest cocktails (and some interesting cuisine). “Greenspan” and “Chug” debut on Monday, November 24.

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