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Wall St. Speaks Out: 12 Predictions for 2015
By: Brian Wieser   (12/19/2014)

Twelve Pivotal Predictions for 2015 - Brian Wieser, Pivotal Research

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Wall St. Speaks Out on Google & Facebook Ad Tech Dominance
By: Brian Wieser   (12/12/2014)

Google's display-related businesses are large enough that by themselves they would be one of the largest sellers of advertising globally. Much of this strength has emerged as Google has assembled the world's most important collection of advertising technology assets. Seeing similar opportunity, we think, Facebook has begun to do much the same.

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Wall St. Speaks Out on Cyber Week Results
By: John Blackledge   (12/05/2014)

Cyber Week sales trends appear solid, with ~21% y/y growth per ChannelAdvisor, while IBM estimates ~13% y/y growth. CA estimates Cyber Week sales for AMZN grew 24% y/y; eBay was up 21% y/y. comScore estimates eCommerce sales up 15% y/y 11/1 through Black Friday, largely in-line with 16% y/y growth forecast heading into the Nov-Dec holiday period. No changes to AMZN, EBAY or W estimates.

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Wall St. Speaks Out on Facebook, Google and: Finding Wanamaker's Lost Half

Over the past few months, we have seen a marked increase in investor questions around the evolving digital advertising landscape. The heightened focus on dollars shifting from TV and other traditional media toward online and social, coupled with Facebook's re-launch of Atlas and the speculation of additional advertising platforms emerging from the other large Internet players convinced us it was time to relook at the digital landscape. This report will attempt to identify how the market is evolving and forecast share gainers and losers. We will look at the opportunity for Atlas and Facebook's Audience Network (FAN) in addition to the LT share of Google's DoubleClick with the opportunities for Twitter, Yahoo, Amazon, LinkedIn and any one of a number of companies who may be able to user their unique user bases to sell advertising across the web.

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Wall St. Speaks Out on Nielsen, BrightRoll and Twitter
By: Brian Wieser   (11/21/2014)

Yesterday morning, at the same time as Viacom was arguing it would work (seemingly in parallel) towards "implementing an industry standard that appropriately reflects (Viacom's) valuable and rapidly growing multi-platform viewership," a Nielsen executive published an article arguing much the same thing. Viacom's CEO went on to say (seemingly in parallel) that it would also move aggressively toward non-Nielsen-dependent advertising monetization.

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Wall St. Speaks Out: Viacom: Focusing on Non-Nielsen Advertising
By: Dan Salmon   (11/14/2014)

Revenue of $3.99B was ahead of our $3.96B estimate and consensus of $3.89B. Adj. EPS of $1.71 was also ahead of our $1.70 and consensus of $1.68. Media Networks adjusted OI was $1.09B (vs. our $1.11B and consensus of $1.01B).

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Wall St Speaks Out on Yahoo Acquisition of BrightRoll
By: Dan Salmon   (11/12/2014)

After market close, Yahoo! announced that it would acquire video ad tech vendor BrightRoll for $640mm in cash. With net revenue of $100mm+, this implies a 6.4x multiple, and the deal will be accretive to EBITDA. BrightRoll's client base includes 87 of the AdAge top 100 U.S. national advertisers, all of the top 15 advertising agencies, and all of the 10 leading demand-side platforms. The transaction is expected to close in 1Q15, and Yahoo expects to begin scaling BrightRoll internationally after that.

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Wall St. Speaks Out: Can TV Nets Go OTT?
By: Tony Wible   (11/10/2014)

The drop in antiquated ratings, poor TV Everywhere development, threat from a long tail of online content, decline in MVPD homes, and rotation of ad spend to increasingly expensive mobile/online products, threaten the existence of less popular cable networks and pressure all owners to consider selling online bundles.

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Wall St. Speaks Out: In God We Trust (Everyone Else Bring Data)
By: Brian Wieser   (11/07/2014)

The issue of secular vs. cyclical shifts of spending in advertising remains as one of the most critical factors impacting media stocks and played out as an important issue this past week over the course of a flurry of earnings reports from owners of national TV properties. For example, price swings such as Discovery Communications' 10% fall-off following the release of its weak third quarter earnings were due at least in part to much softer domestic advertising results and less visibility on the fourth quarter than was expected. Commentary from Fox's Chase Carey regarding cyclical issues echoed points that we have been making in recent months about relative weakness in advertising this year vs. last. However, the notion that a secular shift in ad spending is accelerating still prevails among many, who will point to accelerating growth among digital media owners to support their arguments.

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Wall St. Speaks Out on Agencies' Digital Compensation
By: Brian Wieser   (11/04/2014)

The US advertising economy is weak at the present time. This may appear surprising to some given what appears to be a relatively healthy economy when compared with last year. The forecast we published in June for 2.5% underlying (excluding the impact of spending from political advertising and incremental Olympic activity) growth appears increasingly optimistic with deceleration from last year's 3.2% growth rate highly certain.

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From an early glimpse, the trends showcased here hint that this CES is the “Creators CES.” The MakerSpaces discussed and showcased through the show reinforce a movement to democratize creativity and manufacturing -- among which 3D printing is a large movement. Virtual payments that cross boarders and digital devices are creating new marketplaces. IFTTT (If This Then That) and imbedded intelligence in products are creating connections and learning within the machines and products themselves.

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According to the wikiality of the Interweb (in other words, according to hundreds of sources reposting the same message, but without actual verification), a hacker group known as "The Guardians of Peace" has communicated the following:

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