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Wall St. Speaks Out on Viacom -RBC Capital Markets
By: David Bank   (05/01/2015)

Despite uncertainty surrounding looming DISH renewal, ratings declines and a temporary slowdown in the pace of capital returns, we believe VIAB's multiple compression is overdone given overall visibility in affiliate fee revenues, cost savings from restructurings and our own view of the Network TV Ad market. At ~10.3x (versus peers at 15.4x) on CY16, we believe valuation remains compelling.

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Wall St. Speaks Out on Eve of Upfronts - RBC Capital Markets, LLC
By: David Bank   (04/24/2015)

At Least One Major CPG Player May Move Some Money Back To TV After A Broader Shift To Digital — We have heard numerous Industry sources indicate that P&G, in particular, is strongly considering shifting some budget allocation back from digital to Network TV after a major reallocation didn't deliver the expected returns last year. While the impact of a budget shift from any one marketer isn't enough to make or break the market financially, we think the signal itself could be a positive for the Industry and for investor sentiment.

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Wall St. Speaks Out on Media & Advertising - BMO Capital Markets Corp.
By: Dan Salmon   (04/17/2015)

Ahead of 1Q15 earnings, we find ourselves lacking conviction across our entire group. Our favorites (DIS, LNKD, ADS) continue to perform well, while intriguing Market Perform rated names (e.g., GOOG, TWX, ACXM) continue to have cross-winds and remain range-bound. In our recent downgrades of both OMC and PUB-FR, we see the agency group as fully valued and return to focusing on stocks with company-specific levers (IPG, MDCA).

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Wall St. Speaks Out on LinkedIn Acquisition of Lynda.com - BMO, Dan Salmon / Jeffrey Silber
By: Dan Salmon   (04/10/2015)

LinkedIn will acquire Lynda.com, an online learning company that helps its users improve job skills through online video tutorials. The deal is valued at $1.5B (52% in cash, 48% in stock) and is expected to close in late 2Q15. The price implies a ~10x multiple of Lynda's $150 mm of 2014 revenue, which is growing at a mid-20% range, with 70% gross margins and an adjusted EBITDA margin in the 5-10% range.

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Wall St. Speaks Out on Network TV Reach - Pivotal Research, Brian Wieser
By: Brian Wieser   (04/10/2015)

The greater the number of individual consumers who watch a network, the greater the value the network brings to its advertisers and distributors, and ultimately to its owners. For this report, we looked at monthly data on reach from Rentrak from the beginning of 2011 to the present and can see that TV's reach has generally held up over the past several years, with the vast majority of American households watching each of the largest broadcast networks, whose dominance over cable networks continues.

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Wall St. Speaks Out on New Google Play Ad Unit - Credit Suisse, Stephen Ju
By: Stephen Ju   (03/27/2015)

Google (GOOGL) recently announced the release of a new app promotion ad unit within Google Play to help app developers get their content in front of users. We believe this is one of the more significant new ad units to be released by the company in some time and from a big picture perspective underscores once again our view that Google's presence via its multiple apps and services on mobile still remains under-monetized.

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Wall St. Speaks Out: Apple TV and Over-the-Top Advertising - Brian Wieser, Pivotal Research
By: Brian Wieser   (03/20/2015)

News about over-the-top video content packages has been relentless of late, with reports of Apple's efforts most prominent over the past week. While concerns about the fate of the legacy providers of bundles of content to distributors are undoubtedly overblown (given upstarts' limited content offerings, lack of quality of service guarantees, lack of meaningful customer service, likely higher broadband bills, long-term economic challenges associated with higher marketing and content costs, etc, etc.) there is an important underlying issue for the TV advertising business that is associated with this topic: fragmented audiences are, on average, going to continue to get more fragmented, and near-universal access to identical content will diminish.

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Wall St. Speaks Out: Takeaways from the Advanced Advertising Conference - Dan Salmon, BMO Capital Markets
By: Dan Salmon   (03/13/2015)

We spent the afternoon at the Advanced Advertising conference in New York where we had a chance to catch up with some industry contacts. Participating public companies included DIS, TWX, CMCSA/NBCU, WPP-LN, OMC, PUB-FR, IPG, NLSN, RENT, and TUBE. Notable private companies included WideOrbit, Videology, Simulmedia, and AdMore

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Wall St. Speaks Out on Nielsen Acquisition of eXelate - BMO Capital Markets
By: Dan Salmon   (03/06/2015)

The Wall Street Journal indicated a price of $200mm, which implies around a 6.7x run-rate revenue multiple; this compares with a reported 10.5x multiple paid by Oracle (ORCL, $43.38, rated Outperform by Joel Fishbein) for BlueKai. eXelate functionally operates two businesses: 1) the legacy one (and much larger of the two) is a data exchange, which aggregates and distributes third-party demographic, interest, and intent data from 200+ online and offline data providers; 2) the newer data management platform (DMP) can host and manage clients' first-party data and connect with third-party data sources.

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Wall St. Speaks Out on 4Q Ad Trends - Pivotal Research Group
By: Brian Wieser   (02/27/2015)

Now that the vast majority of public US-based media owners have reported their fourth quarter earnings, we can make a preliminary read on 4Q advertising trends. A more comprehensive assessment of the year will await results from trade groups whose data we rely on for some of our underlying estimates.

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We’ve come a long way over the past 10 years. But while we’ve grown bigger, we haven’t stopped growing. As of February 2015, according to Nielsen US panel data, YouTube reaches more 18-49 year-olds than any cable network in the US. And, YouTube does this on mobile alone.4

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Singer/actress Brandy Norwood will headline new BET romantic sitcom “Zoe Moon,” and the unscripted newbies include “Chasing Destiny” (female superstar hunt led by Destiny's Child member Kelly Rowland), “About the Business” (urban Hollywood profile), “Criminals at Work” (workplace crimes) and “The Label” (rap/pop music history over the last quarter-century). Journalists who didn't get the press release didn't know about a reboot of “Punk’d,” the long-running MTV prank show, or “DeSean Jackson Home Team,” featuring the popular Washington Redskins player. And while Queen Latifah appeared twice to tell attendees about Centric (and unscripted series “From the Bottom Up” and “Curve Appeal” from her own Flavor Unit Entertainment venture) she left out Flavor Unit's intention to premiere four BET original movies over the next year (“Brotherly Love”/”November Rule”/”Deuces” and “S.N.I.T.C.H.”). Not noted anywhere: The status of “The Start-Up,” BET's next scripted series first announced last spring, and plans for a six-hour Nelson Mandela miniseries, following up on “The Book of Negroes,” the channel's first original mini and possible Emmy Awards frontrunner (especially for star Aunjanue Ellis).

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