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MyersBizNet Economic Media Business Report

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Wall St. Speaks Out on Thursday Night Football Impact
By: Dan Salmon   (09/12/2014)

In this report we examine the impact of the new eight-game Thursday Night NFL package on CBS's ratings, advertising revenue, and 2H14 EPS. The first game kicked featured the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens.

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Wall St. Speaks Out: TV's Not Dying (And Neither Is Homer Simpson)
By: Brian Wieser   (09/05/2014)

And so it goes for some with respect to the television advertising business. Headlines this week suggesting Online Video Is Taking Ad Dollars From Traditional TV and Will Advertising Dollars Return to TV? are among the latest repeats of a cartoon backdrop-like loop of variations on the theme that TV is dead or dying. Many investors skip the anger part and go straight to fear. Homer was right, of course, to note that "we all gotta go some time," but nothing we have seen so far suggests it is happening at this point in time, at least based on the facts at hand and our interpretation of what they mean.

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Wall St Speaks Out on WPP
By: Dan Salmon   (08/27/2014)

WPP reported 2Q14 net organic revenue growth of +4.4% versus our +4.1% estimate. Half-year headline EPS of £0.29 compared to our £0.30 and consensus of £0.28. 1H headline net PBIT margins of 13.0% were slightly below our 13.2% estimate. Revenue results were driven by the Advertising and Media Investment Management segment (+6.1% vs. our +5.3%).

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Wall St. Speaks Out on Pandora
By: John Tinker   (08/25/2014)

We continue to see Pandora gaining share from terrestrial radio broadcasters as declines in terrestrial radio advertising accelerated in 2Q14 and were down 3% y/y to $3.5B (down 1% y/y to $6.5B in 1H14). However, we have reviewed our 2014 and 2015 revenue estimates as share gains in local markets may take longer than our initial forecast. In total, we have reduced our 2014 and 2015 revenue estimates by $18M and $50M, respectively. We are now forecasting revenue growth of 43.5% and 31.7% in 2014 and 2015 to $915M and $1.20B, respectively.

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Wall St. Speaks Out: It's Not All About the Consumer!
By: Brian Wieser   (08/22/2014)

To the extent that demographics matter in media and advertising, it's all about the consumer, right? Er…wrong. For lack of a better term, "business demographics" are an under-appreciated concept, especially in context of the media and marketing industries. We've previously argued that as a medium whose decision-makers are not people, per se, but corporations, the most appropriate unit of analysis to understand the industry is its underlying components – businesses. Consumers do matter of course, but only after we first understand what is set in place by the frameworks in which the decision-makers operate.

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Wall St. Speaks Out - Cowen 2014 Internet Bus Tour
By: John Blackledge   (08/15/2014)

Two days into the 2014 Cowen Internet bus tour we have met with eight Internet companies based in Seattle and the SF Bay Area. We present the several highlights on Amazon, Twitter and LinkedIn below. We will provide further updates.

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Wall St. Speaks Out on Rocket Fuel x+1 Acquisition and Disney's Strong Quarter
By: Compiled from Multiple Sources   (08/08/2014)

Concurrent with the earnings report, FUEL announced its intent to acquire X+1, which is a DSP+DMP platform. While we believe the kneejerk reaction will be to view the acquisition (in the context of the guidance) as defensive, we view it as strategically sound, as this presents the client with a more rounded product portfolio and increases stickiness as a function of X+1's SaaS model. We also believe the advertiser headwinds in the form of greater agency prioritization of its own trading desk and bot-driven traffic quality concerns as transitory and ultimately ROI-irrational, and with FY guidance appropriately de-risked we are buyers on the pullback.

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Wall St. Speaks Out: Fox Withdraws Bid for Time Warner (Flash) - Members-Only Report
By: Dan Salmon   (08/05/2014)

Fox Withdraws Bid for Time Warner 21st Century Fox (FOXA, $31.30, Outperform) announced after the close that it has withdrawn its bid for Time Warner (TWX, $85.19, Market Perform) after Time Warner's management and board would not engage in negotiations. Fox also announced a new $6 billion share buyback authorization.

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Wall St. Speaks Out on Ad Tech - (Members-Only Report)
By: Brian Wieser   (08/04/2014)

Many investors and industry participants we interact with are sometimes surprised to learn that we don't formally cover companies commonly characterized as focused on "ad tech" given the volumes of research we do and commentary we provide on the sector and its components. But there is very good reason we spend so much time on it: ad tech is, at its heart, the modern day guts of the advertising industry. How it evolves and is applied by "traditional" and "digital" media companies alike will go a long way towards driving the broader industry's relative winners and losers in years ahead.

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Wall St. Speaks Out on Nielsen
By: Dan Salmon   (08/01/2014)

Nielsen reported 2Q14 adjusted EPS of $0.62, ahead of our and the Street's $0.61 estimate. Watch revenue of $694mm was in line with our $693mm but ahead of the Street's $683mm estimate, while EBITDA of $301mm was ahead of both our $294mm and the Street's $296mm estimate. Buy revenue was $900mm, ahead of our $884mm and the Street's $892mm estimate, while EBITDA of $167mm was light compared with our and the Street's estimate of $181mm and $171mm, respectively. 2014 guidance was largely maintained.

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Cadreon’s mission to clients is very simply to discover and deliver the target audience efficiently and at scale. I do feel we also can’t ignore the other side of the coin, the users; our other mission is to try to deliver advertising that’s relevant and useful.

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Leave it to Jon Stewart to take the NFL -- aka "The League of Exculpatory Gentlemen" -- to task for its complete fumbling of the Ray Rice scandal. After recapping the whole controversy, including Rice's initial two-game suspension ("a two-game slap, one for each wrist"), the Daily Show host scathingly indicts NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell for claiming not to have received or seen the violent elevator video prior to its leak on Monday, when now we know that's not the case. "So you had the tape and you want us to believe that you did not look at it. Well, I think we're all pretty aware of the NFL's obsessive-compulsive tape-watching addictions," Stewart says. "For God sakes, you get 24 angles in high-res slow-motion just to see whether or not a man's knee goes over an imaginary line before his hand crosses a different imaginary line."

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