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C7 and Change at the Upfronts - Brian Weiser-Pivotal Research (Members-Only Report)
By: Brian Wieser   (04/14/2014)

As the broadcast network upfront season is now well under-way by virtue of the cable network presentations which have been made in recent weeks, investor minds (and much of the advertising community) will increasingly focus on the outcomes of negotiations between buyers and sellers. We have written in the past about our "behavioral" model for forecasting pricing, which eschews explicitly "classical" notions that changes in supply and demand can predict a benchmark CPM increase.

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Of Beer, Chocolate and the Commoditization of ad:tech - Brian Weiser
By: Brian Wieser   (04/11/2014)

Ad tech, as it turns out, isn't necessarily much different. The thing that many will view as difficult – the underlying technology of ad tech – can, in fact, be outsourced. For much of the industry involved in selling real-time ad trading products (including companies which compete with each other) Iponweb and AppNexus provide the critical ingredient of technology.

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Google, Discovery, Ad:tech, Pandora and More Wall St Speaks Out - 04-04-14
By: Compiled from Multiple Sources   (04/04/2014)

John Blackledge, analyst at Cowen, published his expectations for Google's (GOOG) 1Q14. In terms of search performance, the analyst explained, "Google is benefiting from solid search industry fundamentals, where 2014 budgets appear to be up 20% y/y, driven by higher paid clicks, rising mobile CPCs, offset by flattish PC/tablet CPCs." He expects a strong quarter from the search leader with +12.3% Y/Y revenue growth, slightly ahead of consensus target of +11%.

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Facebook, Google, Online Video and More Wall St Speaks Out - 3-28-14
By: Compiled from Multiple Sources   (03/28/2014)

While the Internet wasn't happy with the news that Facebook (FB) would acquire Kickstarter-favorite, Oculus Rift, John Blackledge was. The Cowen analyst sees the $2 billion spent on the virtual reality technology as an investment in the network's future social platform. Oculus Rift joins 2 other recent massive acquisitions for Facebook, Instagram and Whatsapp. "FB has demonstrated that management 1) is not afraid to make bold investments and 2) their track record (so far) has been solid.

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Facebook, Nielsen and Online Video: Measure Once, Divide Thrice - Brian Wieser-Pivotal Research
By: Brian Wieser   (03/26/2014)

Measuring the scale of online video content consumption is an important factor in quantifying the strength of new forms of television-like media. However, it's important to assess the means of measurement that drive conclusions, too. When we compare data from two of the leading sources of relevant data – compared in detail over the past five years later in this report – online video content consumption equates to either 3% of TV time or 9% depending on whether one relies on Nielsen or comScore data

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Wible's Weekly: Maker Studios Deal Highlights Awesomeness TV Value
By: Tony Wible   (03/25/2014)

DIS announced the $500 million acquisition ($950 million including performance-linked earnout) of YouTube channel Maker Studios. This deal has interesting implications for DWA, including the validation of the market opportunity and DWA's investment in this area, and a sum-of-parts valuation for Awesomeness TV. We maintain our Buy rating, estimates and $39 Fair Value.

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Millennials, Facebook, Pandora, Apple and More Wall St Speaks Out - 3-21-14
By: Compiled from Multiple Sources   (03/21/2014)

The majority of Millennials (75%) have not cut the cord and subscribed to MVPD service. That's according to a Verizon study mentioned this week by Janney media analyst, Tony Wible. In addition, Millennial TV watching habits are split between live TV (41% of their time), online (34%), DVR (15%), and VOD (10%).

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Wible's Weekly: Sum of Internet Ad Valuations Greater Than the Whole - Janney/MediaEntertainment
By: Tony Wible   (03/18/2014)

Internet valuations have become a focal point after a series of high profile deals and the rapid appreciation in equity values that have left some to justify higher price targets on dubious metrics and bubble inducing logic (i.e. expensive stocks are compared to other arguably overpriced stocks). There is a fixed ad opportunity given finite ad budgets, which we use to find that the market value ascribed to twelve major Internet ad names exceeds the fair value of the global Internet ad spend by about 33% in aggregate.

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Wible's Weekly - Social Addiction, Retrans Regulation, & Media Supplements - Janney/MediaEntertainment
By: Tony Wible   (03/17/2014)

Social Addiction - A recent Pew Research survey suggests that only 11% of consumers would find social media "very hard" to give up, as compared to 28% and 36% who said it would be very hard to live without their fixed telephone line or email, respectively. We believe that this survey does not necessarily reflect on the value that social media creates for users

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Amazon, IAC and More Wall St Speaks Out - 3-14-14
By: Compiled from Multiple Sources   (03/14/2014)

The much anticipated price hike for Amazon.com's (AMZN) Prime service hit this week as expected. The new price $99 (instead of $79) will come into play April 17, 2014. JP Morgan's Doug Anmuth thinks this move comes as a relief to most investors who expected negative customer pushback from a possible larger increase.

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Last week I read an interesting piece by John Carroll, a Senior Director at the research agency IPSOS Mori. In it John was extolling the benefits, the real pleasure he gets from reading a physical newspaper. In fact he had he said cancelled his tablet subscription in order to reinstate the paper version. I feel the same way. To me, reading a newspaper over breakfast is a pleasure. Dividing the sections up between us means we can both read what we want in the order we want, and we can discuss what stories we’ve enjoyed. Reading the same content online of course brings benefits, such as regular updates and the like but it is a different, more personal, more isolated and isolating experience. Not better, not worse just different.

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Guardian News & Media (GNM) publishes theguardian.com, the third largest English-speaking newspaper website in the world (commodore, January 2014). Since launching its US and Australia digital editions in 2011 and 2013 respectively, traffic from outside of the UK now represents around two-thirds of the Guardian's total digital audience. In the UK, GNM publishes the Guardian newspaper six days a week and the world's oldest Sunday newspaper, The Observer. The newspapers were named the most trustworthy, accurate and reliable newspapers in the UK in 2013. The Guardian, which was first published in 1821, is most recently renowned for its agenda-setting NSA and GCHQ revelations following disclosures by whistleblower Edward Snowden, its globally acclaimed investigation into phone hacking, the launch of its ground-breaking digital-first strategy in 2011 and its trailblazing partnership with WikiLeaks in 2010.

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