In a slow week, analysts were busy publishing on broad themes impacting the media industry. Michael Nathanson, the media analyst at Nomura, extracted multiple themes from his firm's Media and Telecom Summit held this week. He zeroed in on the content and distribution owners' sharper focus on TV Everywhere. It seems that the consensus view is that moving content from the TV screen to any second screen is the "primary opportunity" for the sector. In spite of all the noise, the analyst noted, it doesn't look like we're headed towards a-la-carte content anytime soon, though.

According to Jack Myers Media Business Report, while overall advertising spend is expected to grow by 3.5% on a compounded annual basis between 2012 and 2015, online video advertising spend is expected to grow by 42%. Myers estimates total U.S. advertising spend in 2013 to be $203 billion, of which online video advertising spend is projected to be $5.1 billion, or only 2.0%. As online audiences continue to spend more time watching videos, online video advertising spend is projected to reach more than $30.0 billion in 2020, reports Myers in its forecasting report.

Earlier this week, Tony Wible reported on an upbeat Upfront. While the advertising sales season kicked off with typical disconnect from the levels sellers were asking versus those offered by buyers, Janney's media analyst said things look good for the sellers. Auto, representing 14% of annual TV ad spend, has the potential to set the pacing for other buyers, given the pent up demand for new cars.

Following the sale of YouTube network AwesomenessTV to DreamWorks for $33 million, Barclays' analyst Ryan Ripp said, "…it is clear that YouTube has emerged as a new type of major video content distribution platform, and a major business that adds value for both Google and content creators." Google's ( GOOG) video platform accounted for over 34% of total online US video views, according to last week's earnings report. In new research, Ripp estimated YouTube generates $3.6B and $4.3B for GOOG with operating margins as high as 35%.

With large cap quarterly earnings mostly behind us, Michael Nathanson attempted to make sense of it all. The Nomura media analyst identified two clear trends: 1) strong affiliate fee growth from cable networks and retransmission fees and 2) national TV advertising stalling as cable is beating broadcast pretty soundly. Stock prices growth may be "meteoric" but Nathanson admits earnings revisions are "uninspiring", with only two stocks -- Viacom ( VIAB) and Disney (DIS) — seeing positive 2014 estimate changes. "Investors should concentrate on companies that have mass, premium and nonreplicable live content like our Buy rated News Corp and Disney," the analyst wrote in a research note.

BIA/Kelsey released a report on the impact of online and political ads on local TV stations in 2012. According to the report, the industry generated $20.8 billion in revenues in 2012, +13.2% over 2011 mainly from over-the-air advertising and online properties. BIA/Kelsey also computed that there were 97 stations sold last year for a combined $1.9 billion, nearly doubling the amount in 2011. "We expect the pace to normalize this year, but continue its upward trend to pre-recession numbers, in part, due to online revenues. While stations are part of the advertising mix, they continue to prove themselves for delivering audiences through over-the-air programming and, lately, the growth of quality online video offerings that compete with other services," the report quoted Mark Fratrik, chief economist of BIA/Kelsey, addressing investor expectations for the near future.

Facebook (FB) continues to impress JP Morgan's Doug Anmuth. The social network's 1Q13 results were inline on revenues and slightly ahead on EBITDA. But more importantly for the analyst, monthly and daily user metrics continued to grow in all markets, despite growing investor concerns regarding engagement. Ad revenue growth of 43% hit expectations. Needham's Laura Martin sees FB's social graph as playing a large future role in her Buy thesis. By enabling users to connect deeper and longer, Facebook can "…This allows FB to replicate the best features of the open Internet on its closed platform". She has a $33 price target on the shares.

The media stock multiple expansion train continues to chug along, providing most of the +20% gains this year. And Nomura's Michael Nathanson thinks investors are in for another instant replay of 2012 as earnings revisions have only been in the low-single digits. In a research piece he published this week, he said if investors look back to pre-2009 levels, the runway for further upside may be running out (5-10% left to go). "The recent massive rise in valuation is happening at a time when live TV viewing is eroding at a rapid rate," Nathanson wrote in Have You Heard The One About Media Stocks? On the back of this analysis, he cut estimates his for Disney, Discovery, and CBS, while raising those of Scripps Network.

Remember the structural decline thesis floated late last year regarding Kids 2-11 viewership ratings? Investors in Viacom ( VIAB) should, as it was the topic of a Nomura research piece last October. Analyst Michael Nathanson is back this week with an update on the enormous (and inexplicable) decline in Nick's ratings that occurred near the end of 2011 (-33%). The analyst looks at Nielsen data that shows that K2-11 viewing patterns across all channels the past 2 quarters show a stabilization of overall live viewing of −1% to −2% (compared to −5% last year) -- "in fact, better than the recent −4% decline in Nielsen's K2-11 estimates, which means that TV viewing is increasing in a per capita basis".