jackmyers.com
Free ContentFor Members Only
HOME MEDIAVILLAGE.com WOMEN ADVANCING HOOKED UP MEMBERSHIP INFO MEMBER COMPANIES MEDIA BUSINESS REPORT ECONOMIC FORECASTS RESEARCH
Home > MyersBizNet Economic Media Business Report > Media Wall Street Report from Jack Myers - October 7

Media Wall Street Report from Jack Myers - October 7

October 7, 2011
Business Fortune Cookie

Published: October 7, 2011 at 12:14 AM GMT
Last Updated: October 11, 2011 at 12:14 AM GMT

This past week has seen a much anticipated launch and a tragic exit as well. That Apple (AAPL) co-founder Steve Jobs would pass away in the same week as the iPhone 4S's debut was a sad coincidence that seemed to draw even more attention to the future of the company. Nearly the entire digital world stood in a shocked moment of silence on Thursday evening as the news spread. However, the transformations that Jobs had already set in motion will continue to poke, prod, and push the media industry in entirely new directions.

As the fourth quarter started out with a dreary beginning, this week's outlook for media tells a mixed story.

ZenithOptimedia (Euronext: PUB) has revised its 2011 estimates for global ad spending growth, cutting it down from its July estimate of 4.1% to 3.6%. At the same time, the U.S. forecast was changed upwards marginally to 2.2% from 2.1%. The media planning and buying firm cited particular strength in cable TV and Internet spending as the reason for slightly increasing the U.S. estimate. However, they repeated their claim that it will most likely take several years until American advertising spending reaches pre-recessionary levels.

The Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) has recently released its State of Mobile Measurement report and calls for "reliable, consistent mobile measurement standards" in order to truly leverage investments in the mobile ad market. RBR-TVBR's take away from the report points to the need for analyzing the regulatory environment, particularly consumer privacy concerns, in order to ensure that marketers are not inadvertently hindered by government regulation.

Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group might be poised to make a significant role reversal with Yahoo (YHOO) if Alibaba CEO Jack Ma gets his wish to acquire the American Internet heavyweight. Yahoo bought a 40% stake in Ma's company in 2005, but Ma is interested in getting that piece back along with much more.

Unlike other potential buyers recently circling above Yahoo, Ma's interest is significant because he wants to buy all of Yahoo instead of taking it apart. However, a deal would be, in Ma's own words, "complicated." Not only have relations recently soured between the two companies, but the idea of a Chinese company buying an American one has drawn mixed reactions on security and political grounds.

On a less politically polarizing front, Yahoo has also entered into a deal with ABC News to provide more online news content to their audiences. As part of the arrangement, content from ABC News will be featured on Yahoo News, which is the most visited news website in the world. While ABC News president Ben Sherwood regarded the deal as "game-changing," analysts are calling this a relatively minor plus for Yahoo, which still has to find a permanent CEO.

According to a new report by Ad Age, revenues for the leading 100 media companies increased by 5.4% in 2010, rounding out to $322.5 billion. Unfortunately, they've lost some steam this year, as the largest media companies have only grown 4.5% in the first half of 2011.

In the latest attempt to try and restore Napster to its former glory (legally), online music service Rhapsody has bought the original file sharing service from BestBuy (BBY) in the hopes of challenging Spotify and its entrance into the U.S. market. Rhapsody has about 800,000 paying subscribers without including those from Napster (which have not been disclosed), while Spotify boasts around 2 million paid members, a Facebook endorsement, and a growing pull on marketers' attention.

While the much hyped Ultra Violet content management system, which lets you store all your media in the cloud and access it on any supported device, is set to launch at the end of this year, it still seems shrouded in a fair amount of mystery.

No devices or content have yet been approved, but Janney Montgomery Scott analyst Tony Wible thinks this will "ultimately improve portability and may re-invigorate home entrainment sales." However, the damage from cheap rentals may already be done, since Wible sees Ultra Violet as likely to only slow the decline. And speaking from the recent MIPCOM content event in Cannes, France, Miramax CEO Mike Lang said that the film industry really doesn't have a choice and must embrace Ultra Violet in the hopes of preserving sell-through in the home entertainment market.

Nomura analyst Michael Nathanson still remains bullish on the Americas media sector while assessing the current risk/reward payoffs (.pdf). Nathanson strongly believes that the investors with a one year time frame would best off by buying media stock at current levels. He finds Disney (DIS) and Viacom (VIA) especially compelling. The risk of negative ad estimate revisions is also considerably less acute than it was in the fall of 2008.

So even though the fourth quarter started rather sluggishly, there still might yet be a silver lining.

You are receiving this e-mail as a corporate subscriber to Jack Myers Media Business Report. Re-distribution in any form, except among approved individuals within your company, is prohibited. As a subscriber you have full access to all archives and reports at www.jackmyers.com. If you require your ID and password, contact maryann@jackmyers.com

add this social bookmark link

0 Comments
Post a Comment










Commentary Archives

August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014

See all Archived Material

MediaVillage.com

Q&A: IPG SE Asia on Automation, Programmatic and TV
Jay Sears, Senior Vice President Marketplace Development of Rubicon Project discusses “Automation, Programmatic and TV” with Yean Cheong of IPG Mediabrands’ Cadreon in SE Asia. The two executives appeared at Rubicon Project’s 2nd Annual Real Time Trading Update from SE Asia's Buy Side in Bintan, Indonesia in July 2015.

Success on YouTube: These Four Brands are Doing It Right
There’s a huge variety of brands on YouTube and lessons to learn from the ways they tell stories and build communities.

VMA Takeaway: Miley Cyrus is Boring
Miley Cyrus likes to smoke pot and show off her tits. (Her choice of words, not mine.) That was the takeaway from her gig as host of the 32nd annual VMA Awards on MTV Sunday night – and most of her pre-show publicity, as well, which included an appearance on ABC’s “Jimmy Kimmel Live” in which she wore an outfit that covered most of her body except for her breasts. They were bare except for strategically placed pasties.

The Growing eSports Marketplace for Brands
This week on Mindshare’s Culture Vulture Live, Alexis Fragile explores the rise of eSports in North America.

Q&A: Dentsu Aegis SE Asia on Automation, Programmatic and TV
The Summer of Sears continues! Jay Sears, Senior Vice President Marketplace Development of Rubicon Project discusses "Automation, Programmatic and TV" with Anna Chan of Dentsu Aegis' Amnet Asia. The two executives appeared at Rubicon Project's 2nd Annual Real Time Trading Update from SE Asia's Buy Side in Bintan, Indonesia in July 2015.

“AGT” Presents One of the Most Amazing Things You Will Ever See on Any Screen
NBC’s summer hit “America’s Got Talent” has offered up countless impressive acts during its decade-long run … but there was one on the show Tuesday night that in my opinion topped them all. In fact, it was so amazing that it doesn’t seem adequate to qualify it against other “AGT” acts only, so let me say this: It was one of the most incredible things I have ever seen on television – and, in part, on Instagram – period. My neighbors and I were as slack-jawed as judges Howard Stern, Heidi Klum, Mel B and Howie Mandel, and host Nick Cannon, at the end of the segment.

SMI: Vibrant July Gets Ad Spend Market Back on Track
Following a challenging start to the year for most media owners, July delivered the biggest growth numbers of 2015 so far, fueled by digital and a resurgent out-of-home market.

“Fear the Walking Dead,” “I Am Cait,” “Mr. Robot”
Shortly after the publication of my column last Friday, which was filled with hindsight reflections on the recently concluded Summer 2015 Television Critics Association tour, I heard from a former TCA member with an interesting observation of his own.

Will There Be a New Media Distribution Consensus?
It’s been awhile since DISH CEO Charles Ergen began accumulating spectrum to augment his ability to provide robust programming to subscribers via mobile broadband. Last week, I noted that AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson was, more or less kind of, leapfrogging Charlie and putting the strategic idea together by absorbing DirecTV. And, on the cheaper side of the immediate future, major cable MSO/ISPs Comcast, Charter (presumably with the Time Warner Cable and Bright House acquisitions), Cablevision, Cox and others already provide Internet access via Wi-Fi hotspots everywhere (and all together) and are moving to use almost any set-top box (or dongle or device) via the cloud. (Charter’s Thomas Rutledge was a mover behind the remote DVR at Cablevision.) Also at the end of last week, Investor’s Business Daily reported that Oppenheimer analyst Tim Horan was predicting that Verizon, Sprint and T-Mobile would, one way or another, find a way to partner a la AT&T/DirecTV, too.

“TREotM”: The 2nd Decade of the 21st Century
Chapter 12, Part 1

What We Know About Frequency in TV and Digital Advertising: Pt. 2
By Gian Fulgoni, Bill Harvey and Andrew Lipsman

Ashley Madison and the Future of Men
The recent Ashley Madison hack revealed that 86% of the site's users were men, casting men and the online dating culture into the spotlight--and not in a good way.

"Fear the Walking Dead" is Here at Last!
Without a doubt the most feverishly anticipated new series of 2015 is "Fear the Walking Dead," AMC's fearsome prequel to "The Walking Dead." And tonight, at long last, it's showtime!

Is The Agency Model Broken?
Bill Koenigsberg, CEO of Horizon Media, was probably right when he recently pointed out that the old agency model is broken. But it has happened for many reasons that are not only associated with approximately $30 billion in client billings now in review.

The Millennial Dilemma
We’ve been called lazy, arrogant, narcissistic -- and most definitely tech-absorbed. When older generations hear the word “Millennials,” they often groan or shake their heads. We are the spoiled generation, connected constantly to our phones and missing out on real relationships, real connections. Or so they say.

Click Here for Membership Information