|HOME||MEDIAVILLAGE.com||WOMEN ADVANCING||HOOKED UP||MEMBERSHIP INFO||MEMBER COMPANIES||MEDIA BUSINESS REPORT||ECONOMIC FORECASTS||RESEARCH|
Published: October 7, 2011 at 12:38 PM GMT
Last Updated: October 11, 2011 at 12:38 PM GMT
This past week has seen a much anticipated launch and a tragic exit as well. That Apple (AAPL) co-founder Steve Jobs would pass away in the same week as the iPhone 4S's debut was a sad coincidence that seemed to draw even more attention to the future of the company. Nearly the entire digital world stood in a shocked moment of silence on Thursday evening as the news spread. However, the transformations that Jobs had already set in motion will continue to poke, prod, and push the media industry in entirely new directions.
As the fourth quarter started out with a dreary beginning, this week's outlook for media tells a mixed story.
ZenithOptimedia (Euronext: PUB) has revised its 2011 estimates for global ad spending growth, cutting it down from its July estimate of 4.1% to 3.6%. At the same time, the U.S. forecast was changed upwards marginally to 2.2% from 2.1%. The media planning and buying firm cited particular strength in cable TV and Internet spending as the reason for slightly increasing the U.S. estimate. However, they repeated their claim that it will most likely take several years until American advertising spending reaches pre-recessionary levels.
The Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) has recently released its State of Mobile Measurement report and calls for "reliable, consistent mobile measurement standards" in order to truly leverage investments in the mobile ad market. RBR-TVBR's take away from the report points to the need for analyzing the regulatory environment, particularly consumer privacy concerns, in order to ensure that marketers are not inadvertently hindered by government regulation.
Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group might be poised to make a significant role reversal with Yahoo (YHOO) if Alibaba CEO Jack Ma gets his wish to acquire the American Internet heavyweight. Yahoo bought a 40% stake in Ma's company in 2005, but Ma is interested in getting that piece back along with much more.
Unlike other potential buyers recently circling above Yahoo, Ma's interest is significant because he wants to buy all of Yahoo instead of taking it apart. However, a deal would be, in Ma's own words, "complicated." Not only have relations recently soured between the two companies, but the idea of a Chinese company buying an American one has drawn mixed reactions on security and political grounds.
On a less politically polarizing front, Yahoo has also entered into a deal with ABC News to provide more online news content to their audiences. As part of the arrangement, content from ABC News will be featured on Yahoo News, which is the most visited news website in the world. While ABC News president Ben Sherwood regarded the deal as "game-changing," analysts are calling this a relatively minor plus for Yahoo, which still has to find a permanent CEO.
According to a new report by Ad Age, revenues for the leading 100 media companies increased by 5.4% in 2010, rounding out to $322.5 billion. Unfortunately, they've lost some steam this year, as the largest media companies have only grown 4.5% in the first half of 2011.
In the latest attempt to try and restore Napster to its former glory (legally), online music service Rhapsody has bought the original file sharing service from BestBuy (BBY) in the hopes of challenging Spotify and its entrance into the U.S. market. Rhapsody has about 800,000 paying subscribers without including those from Napster (which have not been disclosed), while Spotify boasts around 2 million paid members, a Facebook endorsement, and a growing pull on marketers' attention.
While the much hyped Ultra Violet content management system, which lets you store all your media in the cloud and access it on any supported device, is set to launch at the end of this year, it still seems shrouded in a fair amount of mystery.
No devices or content have yet been approved, but Janney Montgomery Scott analyst Tony Wible thinks this will "ultimately improve portability and may re-invigorate home entrainment sales." However, the damage from cheap rentals may already be done, since Wible sees Ultra Violet as likely to only slow the decline. And speaking from the recent MIPCOM content event in Cannes, France, Miramax CEO Mike Lang said that the film industry really doesn't have a choice and must embrace Ultra Violet in the hopes of preserving sell-through in the home entertainment market.
Nomura analyst Michael Nathanson still remains bullish on the Americas media sector while assessing the current risk/reward payoffs (.pdf). Nathanson strongly believes that the investors with a one year time frame would best off by buying media stock at current levels. He finds Disney (DIS) and Viacom (VIA) especially compelling. The risk of negative ad estimate revisions is also considerably less acute than it was in the fall of 2008.
So even though the fourth quarter started rather sluggishly, there still might yet be a silver lining.
You are receiving this e-mail as a corporate subscriber to Jack Myers Media Business Report. Re-distribution in any form, except among approved individuals within your company, is prohibited. As a subscriber you have full access to all archives and reports at www.jackmyers.com. If you require your ID and password, contact firstname.lastname@example.org
Data, Data Everywhere in the Upfront: An Overview -- Part 5
This is the fifth and final part of a series examining the new data initiatives of major data companies. Parts 1 through 4 outlined the many data initiatives, their scalability, whether their services were gaining traction in the industry and the issue of a standard metric to link systems and platforms. Here, I ask about the role of research in the Era of Data. Is its role changing? Is there a future for research as we know it?
CARPE DIEM: Advertising and the Media
Published on Apr 13, 2015
Broadcast Milestone: A Summer Stunner
It’s the first week of summer, and didja notice? Something rather remarkable happened last night. CBS, NBC and ABC offered three hours of original series programming. Further, Fox’s two hours were filled with original shows and one-half of The CW’s two-hour primetime block was occupied by a brand new episode of a long-running series.
Hard Truths from Universal McCann’s David Cohen
When a senior advertising executive who handles money matters appears at an industry event and speaks his mind in a public forum, as Universal McCann Chief Investment Officer David Cohen did at last week's Online Video Advertising Summit here in New York, everyone should pay attention.
Capturing Your Consumers in the First 5 Seconds
This week, we are celebrating the endless creativity of the advertising and marketing worlds at Cannes International Festival of Creativity. We’re really excited to recognize and revisit this year’s slew of brilliant campaigns on Cannes’ international stage. There are so many great contenders -- the ads that moved people to tears, others that made them laugh and of course those that inspired them to take action.
Video of the Week: Jon Stewart's Quiet Expression of Outrage
Jon Stewart on Thursday night opened his Comedy Central program “The Daily Show with Jon Stewart” in serious commentator mode, talking about the mass murder the night before at the Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church in Charleston, South Carolina.
Pride Report: Rainbows Over Madison Avenue May Lead to Pots of Gold
In their never-ending efforts to sell, sell, sell, advertisers long have found inspiration in the calendar, borrowing interest from holidays such as Valentine's Day, St. Patrick's Day, the Fourth of July, Halloween and, of course, Christmas. In recent years, reflecting the increasing diversity of the consumers they seek to reach, advertisers have added Dr. King's Birthday and Cinco de Mayo.
Elon Musk: The Edison/Tesla/Ford of the Digital Age
I have been an admirer, yes, even a fan of Elon Musk ever since I first learned about Tesla Motors ten years ago. I state that because now it seems that Elon Musk is everywhere in the media -- online, magazines, a best-selling biography (which I have purchased but have yet to start) -- simply because he is out to change the world and people are finally taking notice.
Remembering Ralph Roberts
Ralph Roberts was one of the good guys. Along with Bill Daniels, Bill Brazeal, J. C. Sparkman, Irving Kahn and Bill Bresnan he was always ready to lend a guiding hand to those of us who were (in the late 1960s, some years after Ralph bought his first system in Tupelo Mississippi) new to the industry. I remember Ralph with special fondness as he accepted my early long-haired, hippie journalist persona, inviting me (off the record) to join his annual dinner with his top guys, including the late Dan Aaron (who had been the selling negotiator in Tupelo) and the great Julian Brodsky, his financiers and, after a couple dinners, Brian, too. I was privileged to learn a lot that way.
Rehabilitating a Fragile Direct Response TV Ecosystem
“Whenever possible, one should focus on removing fragilizing interdependencies rather than imposing additional structure and activity that will only increase the fragility of the system as a whole.” -- Nassim Taleb, Rupert Read and Yaneer Bar-yam; from the paper, Precautionary Principle*
“TREotM”: The Sixties
Chapter 10, Part 4
The Missing Media Metric: Reach Velocity — Part 2
In our last post, we discussed what makes Reach Velocity important: It is the best media metric to use in order to maximize the double-tap effect. The faster reach grows, the higher reach will be in any two-day period under the reach curve. And the higher the reach in a two-day period, the higher the reach-at-2-frequency will be in a two-day period.
Agencies in Turmoil: Contracts, Rebates and “Dark Pools”
And so the play continues towards the endgame. With some unimaginably large percentage of US/global media spending up for review the last week brought new revelations around what is fast moving from being an arcane discussion into something close to front page news.
Data, Data Everywhere in the Upfront: An Overview -- Part 4
This is the fourth part of a five-part series examining the new data initiatives of major data companies. Parts 1 through 3 outlined the many data initiatives, their scalability and whether their services were gaining traction in the industry.
The Context of Contextual Content
Content is king. We’ve all heard that over and over, right? But it’s getting to the point that content isn’t just king; it’s a benevolent dictator. There’s so much content out there now that it sometimes seems as if we serve the content rather than the content serving us.