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Upfronts, Freemium Risk and Social TV Engagement - Janney/MediaEntertainment
By: Tony Wible   (04/18/2014)

Early Upfront Read – Projections for the upfronts are relatively timid, reflecting factors such as ratings trends, competition from online video and increased optimism around global ad spend. Upfront commitments from ad buyers for cable could accelerate to 5% YOY growth vs 4.3% last year, while broadcast may not see any increase, according to a FOXA executive.

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C7 and Change at the Upfronts - Brian Weiser-Pivotal Research (Members-Only Report)
By: Brian Wieser   (04/14/2014)

As the broadcast network upfront season is now well under-way by virtue of the cable network presentations which have been made in recent weeks, investor minds (and much of the advertising community) will increasingly focus on the outcomes of negotiations between buyers and sellers. We have written in the past about our "behavioral" model for forecasting pricing, which eschews explicitly "classical" notions that changes in supply and demand can predict a benchmark CPM increase.

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Of Beer, Chocolate and the Commoditization of ad:tech - Brian Weiser
By: Brian Wieser   (04/11/2014)

Ad tech, as it turns out, isn't necessarily much different. The thing that many will view as difficult – the underlying technology of ad tech – can, in fact, be outsourced. For much of the industry involved in selling real-time ad trading products (including companies which compete with each other) Iponweb and AppNexus provide the critical ingredient of technology.

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Google, Discovery, Ad:tech, Pandora and More Wall St Speaks Out - 04-04-14
By: Compiled from Multiple Sources   (04/04/2014)

John Blackledge, analyst at Cowen, published his expectations for Google's (GOOG) 1Q14. In terms of search performance, the analyst explained, "Google is benefiting from solid search industry fundamentals, where 2014 budgets appear to be up 20% y/y, driven by higher paid clicks, rising mobile CPCs, offset by flattish PC/tablet CPCs." He expects a strong quarter from the search leader with +12.3% Y/Y revenue growth, slightly ahead of consensus target of +11%.

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Facebook, Google, Online Video and More Wall St Speaks Out - 3-28-14
By: Compiled from Multiple Sources   (03/28/2014)

While the Internet wasn't happy with the news that Facebook (FB) would acquire Kickstarter-favorite, Oculus Rift, John Blackledge was. The Cowen analyst sees the $2 billion spent on the virtual reality technology as an investment in the network's future social platform. Oculus Rift joins 2 other recent massive acquisitions for Facebook, Instagram and Whatsapp. "FB has demonstrated that management 1) is not afraid to make bold investments and 2) their track record (so far) has been solid.

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Facebook, Nielsen and Online Video: Measure Once, Divide Thrice - Brian Wieser-Pivotal Research
By: Brian Wieser   (03/26/2014)

Measuring the scale of online video content consumption is an important factor in quantifying the strength of new forms of television-like media. However, it's important to assess the means of measurement that drive conclusions, too. When we compare data from two of the leading sources of relevant data – compared in detail over the past five years later in this report – online video content consumption equates to either 3% of TV time or 9% depending on whether one relies on Nielsen or comScore data

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Wible's Weekly: Maker Studios Deal Highlights Awesomeness TV Value
By: Tony Wible   (03/25/2014)

DIS announced the $500 million acquisition ($950 million including performance-linked earnout) of YouTube channel Maker Studios. This deal has interesting implications for DWA, including the validation of the market opportunity and DWA's investment in this area, and a sum-of-parts valuation for Awesomeness TV. We maintain our Buy rating, estimates and $39 Fair Value.

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Millennials, Facebook, Pandora, Apple and More Wall St Speaks Out - 3-21-14
By: Compiled from Multiple Sources   (03/21/2014)

The majority of Millennials (75%) have not cut the cord and subscribed to MVPD service. That's according to a Verizon study mentioned this week by Janney media analyst, Tony Wible. In addition, Millennial TV watching habits are split between live TV (41% of their time), online (34%), DVR (15%), and VOD (10%).

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Wible's Weekly: Sum of Internet Ad Valuations Greater Than the Whole - Janney/MediaEntertainment
By: Tony Wible   (03/18/2014)

Internet valuations have become a focal point after a series of high profile deals and the rapid appreciation in equity values that have left some to justify higher price targets on dubious metrics and bubble inducing logic (i.e. expensive stocks are compared to other arguably overpriced stocks). There is a fixed ad opportunity given finite ad budgets, which we use to find that the market value ascribed to twelve major Internet ad names exceeds the fair value of the global Internet ad spend by about 33% in aggregate.

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Wible's Weekly - Social Addiction, Retrans Regulation, & Media Supplements - Janney/MediaEntertainment
By: Tony Wible   (03/17/2014)

Social Addiction - A recent Pew Research survey suggests that only 11% of consumers would find social media "very hard" to give up, as compared to 28% and 36% who said it would be very hard to live without their fixed telephone line or email, respectively. We believe that this survey does not necessarily reflect on the value that social media creates for users

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What if the “full service” media agency becomes the lead? What if media agencies start adding “creatives” to their organizations as employees or strategic partners? Interesting isn’t it? And not so far fetched because the digital world has also made media and creative almost inextricable. Creatives reporting into media agencies? Wow. Media agencies today have more data resources and consequently more consumer insights available to guide creative -- and more media channel opportunities to explore than ever before. I’ve been asked about this from media agencies and creative people. Will creative people even think about it let alone embrace it? I don’t know. But it sure seems possible and will definitely turn the agency business on its ear.

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I've been using the Samsung Galaxy S4 as my main mobile device for just about a year now (it launched in March 2013 and was made publically available in April 2013) and I like it – but to be as honest as possible, I don't love it. My main issues with the S4 have to do with the camera, battery life, ergonomics and undeletable Samsung bloatware, but the list is much longer. So, I was very, very excited to get my hands on the new, improved Samsung Galaxy S5. Sadly, my excitement quickly turned to ambivalence.

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