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MyersBizNet Economic Media Business Report

Wall St. Speaks Out on Facebook and LinkedIn
By: Dan Salmon   (10/31/2014)

3Q14 non-GAAP EPS of $0.43 beat our $0.39 and the Street's $0.40 estimate. Revenue of $3.2B was in line with our estimate and slightly ahead of the Street's $3.12B. Mobile ad revenue of $1.95B was in-line with our estimate, while total ad revenue increased 64% yoy. Price per ad accelerated again, up 274% yoy, versus +123% in 2Q14; global impressions were down 56%. Management gave guidance for 4Q revenue growth of 40-47% (in line with our 45% estimate) and non-GAAP 2015 expense growth of 50-70%, which includes Oculus and WhatsApp and was much higher than our and Street expectations.

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Wall St. Speaks Out: A Revisionist's Recent History of TV and Internet Advertising - Brian Wieser, Pivotal Research Group
By: Brian Wieser   (10/28/2014)

Students of history understand that knowing where a society has come from goes a long way towards telling us where it is and where it is going. This is just as true when assessing the advertising economy. A better interpretation of historical "facts" is important in understanding where advertising is at the present time, and how spending will evolve in years ahead.

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Digital Appears to Finally Be Hurting National TV Advertising. Wall St. Speaks Out
By: Doug Creutz   (10/24/2014)

We believe that evidence is mounting that meaningful advertising dollars are now flowing out of national TV (broadcast/cable) and into digital (Internet/mobile). The Cowen Media team is reducing its 2014-15 broadcast and cable TV advertising industry estimates; the Cowen Internet team continues to expect robust digital advertising growth over the next five years.

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Wall St. Speaks Out: Leo Hindery on Content Unbundling, Comcast and More
By: John Tinker   (10/24/2014)

3Q14 Preview: We are forecasting revenue growth of 4.2% y/y to $16.85B, from $16.17B in 3Q13. We have lowered our 3Q14 revenue estimate from $17.15B primarily due to lower film revenues, which we have lowered by $370M to $1.13B due to a smaller film slate.

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Wall St Speaks Out on Content, Community and Commerce
By: Laura Martin   (10/17/2014)

Our research coverage tracks the economics of premium video content, both online and offline. We focus solely on consumer-facing valuation equations. In this report, we take the provocative position that the future of online video is linked to community and commerce, based on the following analytical building blocks:

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Wall St. Speaks Out: Google on Track for $1 Trillion Valuation
By: Colin W. Gillis   (10/10/2014)

In our opinion Google is positioned to be the first company on U.S. listed stock exchange to have a market capitalization exceed one trillion dollars, an event that could happen by the next decade (year 2020). A market capitalization over $1 trillion implies a share price for GOOGL of approximately $1500. Taking the 2020 Bloomberg consensus earnings estimate of $71.14 this gives a price-to-earnings ratio of 21x. The company currently trades at 22x its 2014 EPS estimate and has a $382 billion market capitalization.Google, Colin W. Gillis, BGC Financial LP,

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Wall St Speaks Out : TV's Ad Revenue Growth Opportunities
By: Brian Wieser   (10/03/2014)

Our view on the state of TV advertising – that there is not some meaningfully different secular change going on, that conditions are more impacted by broader economic conditions than anything else and that growth in digital advertising is primarily driven by new categories of marketers first and large, TV-centric brands second – is not exactly the dominant one among investors these days.

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Wall St. Speaks Out: New Survey on Disruptive 18-49 Viewing
By: Tony Wible   (09/26/2014)

A recent Variety survey suggested we are seeing a shift in younger viewers' video preferences towards content that's distributed on non-traditional networks that are harder to monetize. This has the potential to disrupt the TV ecosystem if younger viewers carry these patterns into adulthood. Our proprietary follow-up survey of two age demos finds there is disruptive potential as the younger demo has higher instances of cord cutting, OTT use, and fragmentation

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Wall St. Speaks Out on Netflix and Syndication
By: Tony Wible   (09/19/2014)

Syndication has always played a big role in media and many TV networks have relied on this market to fill most of their programming hours. However, NFLX has changed the value proposition as consumers can now create their own network of rerun programming. One would think that this erodes the value of syndication, but in fact we have seen value increase significantly as more players jockey after hit shows around the globe. We believe NFLX is a driving force behind this change and is creating a competitive advantage by being an aggressive early buyer.

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Wall St. Speaks Out on Thursday Night Football Impact
By: Dan Salmon   (09/12/2014)

In this report we examine the impact of the new eight-game Thursday Night NFL package on CBS's ratings, advertising revenue, and 2H14 EPS. The first game kicked featured the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens.

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Should Digital Out-of-Home media be rebranded as Public Video? That was the suggestion of Digital Place-Based Advertising Association Chairman and Zoom Media CEO François de Gaspé Beaubien at last week’s DailyDOOH (Digital Out-of-Home) Investor Conference. He boldly called for a complete out-of-home rebrand and recommended that the medium change its name to Public Video in order to tap into digital ad spend. If online video is the fastest growing segment, he argued, then why not infiltrate that domain? Public video is direct, concise and reflective of the media, de Gaspe Beaubien pointed out.

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National Geographic Channel, a network that in recent years has become known for its uncommonly creative publicity and promotion practices, faces just such challenges in the month ahead when it will debut “Eat: The Story of Food,” a three-night, six-hour documentary miniseries beginning Friday, November 21 that should leave sated anyone hungry for fresh information and fascinating historical footnotes about the title subject, and two new ongoing half-hour series, “Eric Greenspan is Hungry,” in which the celebrity chef travels around the country in search of the best meat, poultry and shellfish recipes, and “Chug,” a series in which comedian and TV host Zane Lamprey travels the world sampling the finest cocktails (and some interesting cuisine). “Greenspan” and “Chug” debut on Monday, November 24.

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