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Wall St. Speaks Out on Nielsen Acquisition of eXelate - BMO Capital Markets
By: Dan Salmon   (03/06/2015)

The Wall Street Journal indicated a price of $200mm, which implies around a 6.7x run-rate revenue multiple; this compares with a reported 10.5x multiple paid by Oracle (ORCL, $43.38, rated Outperform by Joel Fishbein) for BlueKai. eXelate functionally operates two businesses: 1) the legacy one (and much larger of the two) is a data exchange, which aggregates and distributes third-party demographic, interest, and intent data from 200+ online and offline data providers; 2) the newer data management platform (DMP) can host and manage clients' first-party data and connect with third-party data sources.

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Wall St. Speaks Out on 4Q Ad Trends - Pivotal Research Group
By: Brian Wieser   (02/27/2015)

Now that the vast majority of public US-based media owners have reported their fourth quarter earnings, we can make a preliminary read on 4Q advertising trends. A more comprehensive assessment of the year will await results from trade groups whose data we rely on for some of our underlying estimates.

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Wall St. Speaks Out: Death of a Centralized Agency Trading Desk - Pivotal Research Group
By: Brian Wieser   (02/20/2015)

At most agency holding companies' media divisions, when programmatic buying initially emerged over the last decade, it was typically centralized into something with a distinct P&L which became what most of us now call agency trading desks. Client teams inside of the conventional media agency businesses were commonly "encouraged" in one way or another to direct digital budgets to these entities.

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Wall St. Speaks Out on 2015 Digital Advertising Outlook - Janney/MediaEntertainment
By: Murali Sankar   (02/13/2015)

Digital Advertising will be driven by growth in Mobile, Programmatic, and Video advertising. These trends will highlight the importance of being data-centric and ability to capture budgets that we believe will increasingly come from traditional TV advertising. The crowded landscape (particularly in ad-tech) will lead to consolidation, as niche players struggle to capture economics. Viewability and ad fraud remain top issues for ad buyers and can drive growth in performance-driven advertising as well as Programmatic Direct. FUEL (Buy, $22.50 FV) remains our top pick.

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Wall St. Speaks Out on Ad Fraud, TV Ad Spend, Mobile & Social - Janney/MediaEntertainment
By: Tony Wible   (02/06/2015)

Ad Fraud – Suspicious traffic (possibly indicating ad fraud) from desktops continues to significantly outpace mobile in the US, according to data by Solve Media. From 2Q14 to 3Q14, suspicious desktop traffic increased from 44.5% to 56.2% of impressions, while it declined from 18.8% to 17.2% for mobile. Bot (non-human) traffic increased to 41.5% (from 30.8% in 2Q) for desktops, while it decreased to 7.2% (from 11.6%) for mobile.

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Wall St. Speaks Out: Groundhog Day for TV Advertising - Pivotal Research
By: Brian Wieser   (01/30/2015)

Monday is Groundhog Day, which seems as good a time as any to ponder the year ahead for owners of media properties focused on national TV advertising sales. Will the shadow of weak recent results for advertising loom large in the year ahead and result in a demoralizing repeat of 2014 for sellers of TV ad inventory? Or will the cyclical nature of marketing mean that new budgets – if not new marketers – allow the industry to break free of last year's trends to witness a flowering of growth once again?

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Wall St. Speaks Out on Key Takeaways from NATPE - RBC Capital Markets, LLC
By: David Bank   (01/23/2015)

Local TV Advertising Appears to Have Accelerated Sequentially. Core local spot TV advertising (ex-political) was down mid-teens in October as political displaced core business, with November improving to being flattish Y/Y and improvement also projected to have occurred in December.

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Wall St. Speaks Out on FB, Google, Twitter & Yahoo - Pivotal Research
By: Brian Wieser   (01/22/2015)

Price target changes were primarily a function of changes to costs of capital embedded in our models which we have incorporated across our coverage universe. In our valuation framework, lower long-term costs of capital (driven at this time by falling yields on long-term treasury bonds) disproportionately impact companies whose stock prices are disproportionately dependent upon their terminal values. Each of Facebook, Google, Twitter and Salesforce.com remain as Buy-rated. We continue to rate Yahoo Hold, although we note that a majority of its value is dependent upon the value of Alibaba.

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Wall St. Speaks Out on Mobile Marketing: Still Early Innings for Brands - Pivotal Research
By: Brian Wieser   (01/20/2015)

For well over a decade, many pundits and practitioners within the advertising industry would claim that "next year is the year of mobile advertising." Over the past two years a case could be made that the year for mobile advertising finally arrived. As an increasing share of advertisements running on Facebook, Twitter and Google are executed on mobile devices, it is technically true that mobile advertising is growing rapidly, as each of these companies capture a growing share of digital media budgets.

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Wall St Speaks Out on Netflix OTT, Roku 4K, Facebook Video & DVD Sales - Janney/MediaEntertainment
By: Tony Wible   (01/16/2015)

NFLX usage is increasing, with 36% of subs using the service daily in 2014, and 72% using it weekly, according to Leichtman Research Group. Usage has increased since 2010 when only 10% streamed daily and 43% weekly, although this is likely mostly driven by the amount of content now available. We suspect that the increased amount of children's content is also a driver. Daily usage is slightly lower for subs that also subscribe to pay TV (32%). Penetration among pay TV subs is 36%, and 48% among non-pay TV subs, implying that consumers substitute the two services. We believe that the pay TV subscriber base will continue to face pressure from on-demand alternatives, including SVOD and online video.

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Maybe country music is more your speed. You can get plenty of it every Wednesday night on ABC’s “Nashville,” which most weeks is chock-full of original country tunes. Here’s a standout song from the show’s third season, “Gasoline and Matches,” performed by Connie Britton and one of this season’s outstanding guest actresses, Broadway star Laura Benanti, who has been appearing regularly on “Nashville” and this past Sunday held her own opposite Ed Asner in a guest shot on CBS’ “The Good Wife.” Sticking with the superhero theme above, Benanti has also been cast as the mother of the title character in the pilot for CBS’ “Supergirl.”

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2015 Network TV Upfront and NewFront Calendar

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