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UP is the new UP - Matthew Greene - MediaBizBloggers

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Published: November 19, 2009 at 02:52 AM GMT
Last Updated: November 19, 2009 at 02:52 AM GMT

By Matthew Greene

I tend to like hard data, not soft data; engaged and measurable consumer activity, not passive activity; improved results at retail and e-commerce, not 'oh well' acceptance that 'flat is the new up'—a currently popular belief amongst old-line media defenders.

To that point, I recently read an article in the Grey Lady that got my media—think dinosaur-collusionary—hackles raised. It seems that this good ol' fashioned newspaper collaborated with good ol' fashioned TV to announce…GREAT NEWS!!! The 'passive activity' of viewing TV commercials is alive and kicking.

The primary boil-down of this article claims that "46% of viewers 18-49 are still slouching on their couches watching messages about movies, cars and beer during playback" of their favorite DVR-recorded programs. This has allowed big brands and agencies fretting over the potential mass-loss of eyeballs from people fast-forwarding through the TV commercials to keep rearranging the chairs on the sinking ship.

Read the full NYT article here: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/02/business/media/02ratings.html?_r=2

As you read the article in greater detail, it becomes clear that certain hand-wringing parties are scrambling to desperately crow about this 46% viewership that is, doing the math, a 54% loss-rate. How's that workin' for ya?

To me this news story about DVR commercial watchers is the equivalent of a 'put on a brave face' TV news item celebrating the fact that one newspaper or another lost only $25MM last quarter, and 10,000 subscribers this year vs. last. Right?

I mean…I feel terrible about the decline in newspaper readership over the past decade, especially since I take personal responsibility for hastening their downward momentum. The same holds true for TV. That being said, these two media channels STILL collectively enjoy approximately 60% of ALL advertising dollars…so I don't feel too bad.

The argument that fewer people are fast-forwarding through commercials is mitigated by the confession that TV viewing is a 'passive activity,' according to Brad Adgate, SVP Research at Horizon Media.

Passive experience is NOT what consumers want anymore. This is exactly my point, and one with which all my clients are familiar. Furthermore, there are more and more substantive findings that indicate quite the opposite—an engaged consumer experience is not only preferred but also expected. Which is why my counsel to clients has always been to REDUCE spending in traditional media channels, and allocate far greater dollars online. My argument is strengthened by the datasets and accountable results that inform every single Search, Display, Social Media campaign we undertake on our clients' behalf.

We need to change the go-nowhere homily of 'flat is the new up' to 'Up is the new Up' because that's where innovation thrives.

My suggestion to the television industry: find solutions for the 54% of viewers who do fast forward, don't just sugar coat the flat, er, facts.

Matthew Greene has over twenty-five years of strategic advertising and marketing experience working with blue-chip companies. Matt can be reached at matthew.greene@blueribbondigital.com

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Reader Comments(5)

Accusing newspapers and TV of media collusion is ridiculous. For years the very same New York Times has been predicting the demise of TV at the foot of PVR’s, and you’ve lapped it up. Those newspapers have painted PVR;’s as commercial avoidance machines and gleefully cried out that the sky is falling.
Suddenly, some of us are realizing that PVR’s are commercial recovery machines. That episode of “The Good Wife” you missed last night will be watched this weekend. Last night you missed all of the commercial units, when you watch the show this Saturday and skip 54% of the units, 46% of them will be seen, recovered………. You’ll hear 46% of the trees that fell in the forest.
Seems that it is too often forgotten that ad skipping takes place in a SHOW YOU MISSED, so any commercial exposure in a time shifted playback of a show is purely incremental. This data is not new, since the earliest days of Tivo we have known that not all ads are skipped and we have also known that PVR enabled homes watch more TV. So long as the proportion of Live TV viewing in those households remains significant, PVRs are actually a friend to TV advertisers. Get with the Program!

Posted at 12:42 PM on Nov 19, 2009 by Mark sherman

Thanks for your email Mark. I think I see your point here, and perhaps I should have been clearer in this article...
The 'real' headline for today's editorial has everything to do with the "passive" experience that I personally believe all traditional media represents, vs. digital media, where we capture and report on "engaged" consumers and qualify AND quantify the value of that engaged consumer across all critical benchmarks.
Having spent quality time as a senior account director at shops like O&M, Ammirati & Puris et al, I've had the privilege of working, like you, with global brands, enormous budgets and understand the underlying strategies in the media planning, buying and creative processes. I believe, but don't really 'know' that when I ran the Hardee's business, for instance, and poured $200MM/yr. into b'cast channels with a terrific creative campaign – that business was up 15% YOY. I have no idea whether GRPs/GRPs really meant anything other than our media department was doing their job given the tools du jour.
With Digital, I can tell you how many people actually engaged with my advertising, spent x amount of time with client campaigns, what actions they took inside the ad units, purchase intent and actual purchase (both e-com and at retail) and a far deeper understanding of the impact online advertising delivers, vs, traditional.
And so IMHO, I think ALL major brands should be share-shifting 30% of available ad dollars to the digital realm…because of the accountability and productivity of the medium.
Happy to continue this dialog online via MediaBizBloggers. Jack, what do you think…?
Best, Matt
P.S. Are you in Vancouver, or elsewhere?

Posted at 04:59 AM on Nov 20, 2009 by Matt Greene

All that definitely didn't come through in your piece.
Perhaps you should write another one that more clearly supports digital media without irresponsibly dissing TV as a means of supporting your point of view!

Posted at 05:04 AM on Nov 20, 2009 by Mark Sherman

Mark,
I actually make these points quite clearly in my article re the "passive" TV experience vs the "engaged" consumer experience, and with regard to the irresponsible editorializing about TV, I use that 46% "recovery" as a proxy in this article for the 30% share-shift goal because that's what I clearly stated in my previous article from last week -- my focus is called Media Malfeasance, and my thesis is that continuing to completely OVER-spend client dollars in traditional media is the very embodiment of media malfeasance.

Our industry (advertising & media agencies) really needs to re-point itself quickly BEFORE clients do it for us and decide that agencies are superfluous in the consumer dialog.

Posted at 05:06 AM on Nov 20, 2009 by Matt Greene

Normally I find myself agreeing with just about 100% of your POV, but today something is a little different.

I'm not 100% convinced that all advertising and marketing needs to be anything more than passive. I'll gladly concede that there's more value in a more engaged consumer / viewer / audience than one that isn't, but as far as ad effectiveness goes, sometimes passive is good enough. Maybe it only works for media brands and not consumables, but when I see a commercial for a movie or new TV show, I'm watching. I'm not leaping off the sofa to buy a movie ticket, but I'll file it away that "The new Coen brothers movie is out," or "that new show might be worth recording."

I wont say that "flat is the new up" but I do think that sometimes "flat is flat, and thats good enough here."

Posted at 12:10 PM on Nov 24, 2009 by Corey Kronengold